Reliance on fossil fuels for energy is a major contributor to climate change. Climate change has wide-ranging effects on various sectors of the economy, as well as on animal and human populations. A recent counterfactual analysis conducted by Kahn et al. [1] revealed that even a moderate increase in global temperature by 0.04OC could result in a substantial 7 % contraction of the global economy by the year 2100. In addition, Sattar et al. [2] conducted a comprehensive review of the effects of climate change on wildlife animals. They highlighted that climate change significantly disrupts the dynamic conditions of biomass production, trophic interactions, ecosystem balance and hydrological equilibrium. 

Authors: Isiaka Akande Raifu, Fidelis Ademola Obaniyi, Great Nnamani, Abdulkhalid Anda Salihu

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It is rather a norm for researchers to directly use the log difference of an asset price to compute returns. Just like using ln(X + 1) to avoid taking the natural logarithm of zero(s). However, this log returns is but a conditional approximation of the actual returns. Nonetheless, can log difference approximations and the ln(X + 1) common practices produce BLUE estimates? Using the log return as an example, this study discusses the approximation nature and conditions for using the log difference approximation both for the interest regressor and control variables. These conditions are; that both the sample average and variance of the original series tend to zero. When these conditions are not met, the log difference approximation is, in fact, not a good approximation and biases OLS causal estimators. When the conditions are met, it produces unbiased, consistent but less efficient estimators. Thereby making the estimates less precise and less accurate. Nonetheless, this is true for a log dif ferenced interest regressor(s) and control variables, when it correlates with the interest variable(s) and explains, in part, the dependent variable, even in large samples. Similarly, the common use of ln(X +1) biases the esti mation of the true causal effect, even the intercept term, except when X tends to infinity. A robust solution of using non-zero subsamples, against ln(X + 1), produces unbiased and consistent estimators for the true causal effects under the causal assumptions. These biasedness, inconsistencies, and inefficiencies do not disappear in large samples. Finally, both ex-ante and ex-post test statistics are discussed, however, the ex-post estimation test statistic is recommended to confirm both the choice of using log difference approximation and that of using ln(X + 1), in an empirical data causal regression analysis. Ideally, researchers should ensure the conditions for using the log difference approximation are met. Otherwise, these approximations and practices produce biased, inconsistent, and inefficient results, even in large samples, leading to misinformed policy implications.

Should Africa rather delay investments in renewable energy given their trivial contributions to global greenhouse gas emissions? This is strongly discouraged given the existing benefits of increased renewable energy investments in an African economy. Nigeria, the leading African economy is adopted as a representative to illustrate the prospects of improved (renewable) energy security in Africa. This study develops a dynamic recursive general equilibrium model to evaluate the prospects of renewable energy investment paths for Africa towards improving its energy security levels. Unlike other competing models, this model allows businesses to dynamically substitute between intermediate renewable energy and fossil fuel products, thus, taking active steps towards achieving a green economy. The results show that present economic welfare will be sacrificed for future welfare benefits and improved energy security. This confirms the transitioning of an economy from a lower steady state to a higher steady state path as postulated by the Solow model. However, a sustained gradual investment in the renewable energy sector yields the least welfare loss as the economy transitions through its energy security path. The one-off policy design produces relatively higher results in the immediate future while the sustained gradual incremental path smoothens these results into the far future. The results confirm that Africa’s demand for renewable energies substantially outweighs its supply, thereby suggesting a potential and non-trivial market for renewable energies, nonetheless. Results-based policies that are geared towards improving energy security are formulated for the African economies.

According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), headline inflation rose to 34.8% in December 2024, a 0.20% points increase from 34.60% recorded in November 2024. This is 13.4% points higher than the 21.4% targeted by the Central Bank. On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation was 5.87% points higher in December 2024 compared to December 2023. Urban inflation increased by 6.30% points year-on-year to 37.29% in December 2024 from 31.00% in December 2023. Similarly, on a year-on-year basis, rural inflation rose by 5.37% points to 32.47% in December 2024 from 27.10% in December 2023. Key contributors to the rising inflation include food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing, water, electricity, and gas. However, the year-on-year increase reflects a significant rise in the cost of living compared to the same month in the previous year, driven by economic challenges such as weak currency, high energy costs, and supply chain disruptions. The continued rise in inflation implies a substantial decline in purchasing power, severely affecting low-skill individuals. Additionally, higher inflation rates in urban areas compared to rural areas indicate rising costs of food and essential items and may result in civil unrest. To mitigate these effects, the government should implement temporary subsidies for essential goods, such as food and energy, to cushion the impact on vulnerable households. Furthermore, currency-stabilizing monetary policies are essential to reduce imported inflation caused by currency depreciation

This study explored the causal link between tourism and CO2 emissions using bivariate and multivariate causality approaches to analyse data from 134 countries. Employing JKS's Panel Granger non-causality method, we established that tourism significantly Granger-causes environmental pollution. The multivariate model exhibited more robust causality than the bivariate model, yet this causality remains consistent regardless of a country's economic development level. This emphasizes the urgent need to address the interplay between tourism and environmental concerns.

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In Q3 2024, total capital importation into Nigeria declined by 51.90%, dropping to $1,252.66 million from $2,604.50 million in Q2 2024. Portfolio investments ranked highest at $899.31 million (71.79%), followed by other investments at $249.53 million (19.92%), while foreign direct investment accounted for $103.82 million (8.29%). Sector-wise, the banking sector led with $579.48 million, followed by financing at $294.55 million and production/manufacturing at $189.22 million.

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Naira appreciated by 7.62 percent from ₦1661.12 to a US Dollar on 2nd December 2024 to ₦1534.56 to a US Dollar on 3rd January 2025. Since the unification of exchange rates in June 2023, the Naira has been fluctuating. In 2024, the local currency lost about 41 percent of its value against the dollar in the official market, despite a rise in external reserves in the same period. The recent appreciation of the Naira comes a month after the implementation of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS), which was officially launched on 2nd December 2024 to reduce speculation and enhance transparency in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market. With a strengthened domestic currency, it is expected that prices would fall in the short term, especially given that Nigeria is a highly import-dependent country. If the appreciation is sustained over time, it enables the country to concurrently service foreign currency-denominated debts and supply demanded liquidity in the foreign exchange market. To ensure a stable and strong Naira, there is a need to maintain sustainable debt levels, reduce reliance on imports, and boost foreign reserves by increasing exports. Also, there is a need to create a business-friendly climate for foreign investors to attract foreign exchange inflow.

The rising spate of inflation in Nigeria has become worrisome in recent years, considering its implications on the quest for tourism development in the country. This study, therefore, empirically evaluates the effect of inflation on the Nigerian tourism industry. Two tourism indicators (tourism arrivals and tourism receipt) are employed in this study for robustness and quarterly data on relevant variables for the period between 1995Q1 and 2020Q4 were analysed using different econometric approaches. The results of all the estimation methods unanimously revealed a trade-off between inflation and the two tourism indicators, signalling that inflation dissuades international tourist arrival and lower tourism revenue in Nigeria. Hence, the Nigerian monetary authority must ensure price stability by keeping the inflation rate at a desirable level in a bid to foster tourism development in the country.

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Authors: Isiaka Raifu Akande and Joshua Adeyemi Afolabi

Key messages
• Nigeria's exports are recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, but they remain heavily
reliant on raw products, particularly oil and gas, which account for over 80% of export
earnings.
• The country faces challenges in trade competitiveness, including low product
diversification, limited value addition, and inefficiencies in logistics and
infrastructure.
• Stabilizing the national currency and broadening the tax base are crucial for
improving Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment and reducing vulnerability to external
shocks.
• Simplifying trade procedures, improving road quality, and expanding shipping and
logistics services can ease the movement of goods and lower business costs.

AUTHORS

Anthony Okon; Chukwuka Onyekwena ; Bilkis Ceesay and Isatou Jallow 
 

This policy brief was prepared by the participants during a training on Trade Competitiveness and Regional Value Chain Analysis, held in Banjul (The Gambia) from 23 to 27 September 2024.